San Francisco Market Update

November 2024

Good evening clients, friends, and colleagues:

How is the market doing after the election? While we can't attribute current data to the election results, let's jump right into the most important metrics:

The stock market reacted positively to the election results (of course there can be many reasons for this), continuing it's very strong 2024 trajectory (Dow is +16.5% YTD; Nasdaq is +30% YTD).

Mortgage interest rates have continued to climb since their low in mid September; the average 30-yr fixed is now pushing 6.8%.

Median sales price for single-family homes is +1.8% year-over-year, while condo prices are +5.8% year-over-year.

The absorption rate in San Francisco (in other words, the % of active listings going into contract) hit its highest point since spring 2022 (the very peak of our housing market) this October. This is a very positive sign for real estate prices moving in the right direction, despite high interest rates.

Our luxury sector has seen a huge increase in demand:

2024 year-to-date sales of luxury house sales ($5M+) are up 40% and luxury condo and co-op sales ($2.5M+) are up 48% (!).

In other words, the segment of the market that is most positively impacted by financial market gains and least negatively impacted by higher mortgage interest rates is the segment making moves.

Listing and sales activity, as well as virtually all the standard metrics of demand, typically cool dramatically in November and December, and the number of unsold listings take off the market usually jumps, especially in higher price segments. Still, the next 2 months can be an excellent time for buyer to negotiate more aggressively to make some of the best deals of the year.

If you have any questions about a particular listing or market segment, feel free to simply reach out to me directly.

Warmly,

Ron

Chart of weekly 30-year mortgage rates from 2023 to November 2024, peaking near 7.8% in October 2023.

Line chart comparing Nasdaq and S&P 500 gains from January 2023 to November 7, 2024.

San Francisco house-price chart, 1990–2024, with a peak in 2022.

Chart of San Francisco condo prices from 2005 to October 2024, with a $1.14 million October 2024 median.

Chart of San Francisco new listings from December 2019 to October 2024, showing seasonal peaks and winter declines.

San Francisco active and coming-soon home listing counts and median asking prices as of October 31, 2024.

San Francisco active and coming-soon home listings by Realtor district, with house and condo counts and median prices.

Bar chart of San Francisco active and coming-soon home listings, February 2022–November 2024, with November market notes.

Chart of San Francisco listings going into contract, showing a rise to 480 in October 2024.

San Francisco monthly listing absorption rates, with October 2024 highlighted as the highest since spring 2022.

Bar chart of San Francisco active-listing price reductions from 2018 to October 2024, with October peaks highlighted.

Chart of monthly San Francisco home sales from 2020 to October 2024, with pandemic and seasonal annotations.

Chart of San Francisco listings withdrawn without selling, with prominent December peaks from 2021 to 2023.

Bar chart of San Francisco luxury house sales from 2018 to October 2024, highlighting the pandemic-era peak.

Chart of San Francisco luxury condo and co-op sales from 2018 to October 2024, highlighting October’s two-year monthly high.

Chart comparing San Francisco house and condo sale prices to original list prices from 2020 through October 2024.

Bar chart of foreign-born residents by Bay Area county; Santa Clara leads at 42%, while Sonoma is lowest at 17%.

Infographic compares California’s 2023 in-migration and out-migration by state, with totals and Census data notes.

Active Listings

Cow Hollow

1935-1937 Greenwich Street

4 BD 6 BA 3160 SF $4,750,000

Yerba Buena

765 Market Street, Unit 22E

2 BD 3 BA 1456 SF $1,800,000

Hayes Valley

555 Fulton Street, Unit 427

1 BD 1 BA 728 SF $749,000

South of Market

720 Clementina Street

3 BD 4 BA 4965 SF $4,500,000

Van Ness-Civic Center

1545 Pine Street, Unit 503

2 BD 2 BA 1131 SF $1,250,000

South Beach

177 Townsend Street, Unit 827

2 BD 2 BA 1019 SF $1,148,000

Recent Sales

Mission Bay

420 Mission Bay Boulevard North, Unit 605

2 BD 2 BA 1140 SF $1,350,000

Portola

741 University Street

3 BD 2 BA 1567 SF $1,294,800

Outer Parkside

2179 46th Avenue

2 BD 1 BA 1200 SF $1,350,000

Eureka Valley-Dolores Heights

4763 19th Street

3 BD 3 BA 1748 SF $2,650,000

ronsellsthecity.com

Ron Salter

DRE #: 01989381

REALTOR®

M: 415.717.8752

[email protected]

Montgomery + LEE

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multicounty metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.

San Francisco Market Update | November 2024

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