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San Francisco Market Update
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Clients, friends, and colleagues:
The tale of segmented markets within San Francisco remains at the forefront of my take on the current real estate market.
You'll hear from many agents that the market is "on fire" with bidding wars galore and overwhelming buyer demand. This is true within several segments: entry-level single-family homes in coveted neighborhoods, A+ properties (generally speaking across all price segments, even in our $5M+ luxury segment), boutique condos that check the boxes, well-priced property in our upper tier neighborhoods, etc. But despite increased buyer demand across the board, certain segments still present strong opportunities where buyers have the power.
2024 has been characterized by reinvigorated buyer demand, lifted up by stabilized interest rates in the mid 6s, optimism for several rate hikes through the year, and a soaring stock market (at least for the S&P and Nasdaq, which always heavily impacts our market).
Yesterday's inflation release wasn't great news, noting that the overall inflation ticked up in March to 3.5% from 3.2% in February. The "Core" rate remained at 3.8%. Remember, the Fed's target rate is 2%.
Despite this underwhelming news, I do believe we will see healthy year-over-year appreciation rates as we move through 2024. Interest rates have oscillated in the 6.74-6.94% range (up from January but still well below the fall), but reductions in the benchmark rate are still widely expected. Both the latest national and San Francisco unemployment readings, at 3.8%, remain near historic lows.
I'll leave you with one more interesting tid-bit. I've long said that our downtown market presents some of the best value opportunities for buyers. Values in SoMa and downtown have been exceptionally depressed since the onset of the pandemic. In other words, they have the most room to appreciate. And it's starting to happen - here's the most recent condo appreciation rates in San Francisco (year-over-year):
Downtown/SoMa/Civic Center: +7% year-over-year
All other SF neighborhoods: +2% year-over-year
If you have any questions about the market or specific property, I'm always happy to help.
Recent reviews, sales, and listings @ the bottom
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"We have worked with half a dozen realtors in the past and, for the first time, we can confidently and happily say Ron not only exceeded all expectations, but was the best agent we have ever worked with, by far. In addition to his warm personality, he is always seconds away from replying to a text or email keeping up constantly appraised of the search status, and later the escrow progress. He dived into each property we were interested in and was able to speak breadth and depth on the location, building, and disclosures. Most refreshing was his attitude on the offer preparation and bidding process where you truly feel he is working for you, tuned to your style and priorities, making sure you are comfortable and happy with all the choices leading you to finding your new place. His advice was key to find the "right place" for us, and get it at the "right price", while enjoying the "best experience" in buying real estate."
S & S / Buyers in Telegraph Hill
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"Ron was absolutely amazing to work with. Ron made us feel like we were his most important client. Coming from out of town he diligently scheduled a full day of showings and promptly and without wavering adjusted our showings as we learned more about the specific areas. Prior to that he provided invaluable feedback to narrow down our search by getting to know our needs and not what he wanted to sell. In the end we found the right place and were lock in step throughout the entire process and saved the deal with his diligence and incredible extra effort and expertise. HIGHLY HIGHLY recommend Ron and he's not pushy or trying to sell you anything. A great guy, tremendous professional and someone we enjoyed working with and will continue to do so!"
M & G / Buyers in South Beach
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Recent Sales / In Contract
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Eureka Valley-Dolores Heights
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4 BD 4 BA 3050 SF $4,300,000
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1 BD 1 BA 815 SF $778,300
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401 Harrison Street, Unit 26F
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1 BD 1 BA 830 SF $925,000
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201 Folsom Street, Unit 22F
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2 BD 2 BA 1191 SF $1,650,000
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2 BD 2 BA 1155 SF $1,495,000
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2155 Buchanan Street, Unit 2
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2 BD 1 BA 1035 SF $1,295,000
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Active Listings / Coming Soon
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555 Fulton Street, Unit 427
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1 BD 1 BA 728 SF $749,000
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765 Market Street, Unit 22E
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2 BD 3 BA 1456 SF $1,800,000
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Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multicounty metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.
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