Clients, friends, and colleagues:
The August market report captures the meat of our summer swing here in San Francisco, where outside of December-February, we routinely see the slowest real estate activity of the year (excluding 2020 & 2021 due to the pandemic)
While the market here in the city (and the greater Bay Area) is undoubtedly cooling, context always matters.
Historic price surges and record-setting transactional volume for the past year and a half have set the stage for large deltas in year over year comparisons. Provided below are short-term graphs, alongside longer term trends to provide a greater historical perspective.
As illustrated in this report, dramatic changes in demand, inventory, overbidding, price reductions, and year-over-year appreciation rates have occurred. Buying and selling continues: Over 5,200 home sales were reported to MLS from Napa County to Monterey in July 2022 - many of them selling quickly for over asking price - but that number is down 38% from last year. Median home price appreciation rates in the Bay Area have seen steep declines from those in early 2021/early 2022 - and in June/July, San Francisco median home prices were down year over year. Changes vary in degree by location and market segment, but the direction of the shifts is near universal.
As of early August, the average, weekly mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan fell below 5% for the first time since April
(I've found lenders that have recently helped a couple recent buyers secure 30-year fixed options under 4%), and stock markets have seen large rebounds since early July - but these and other indicators have been subject to sudden and often dramatic volatility, and their future direction can't be taken for granted. Within this report is a link to a review of many of the macroeconomic factors at play.
According to some of us agents, buyer interest has begun to rekindle with the decline in competition, increase in inventory, and economic changes mentioned above. But if this is part of a broader recover in demand, it has not yet shown up in the statistics - which are lagging indicators of what's happening on the ground right now. Monthly data can be volatile, fluctuating according to a wide variety of factors, including market seasonality. I say it all the time, and while headlines will tell you otherwise: longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.
Mid-late summer is usually a much slower period compared to the spring selling season. Autumn typically sees a very substantial spike in new listings and sales prior to the big mid-winter slowdown.
If you have any specific questions about the market, I'm always here to help.
Warmly,
Ron
Recent reviews & sales @ the bottom
