San Francisco Market Update

December 2025

Clients, friends, and colleagues:

I hope you all have been having a wonderful holiday season, and wishing you a joyous new year celebration! The market has been quite cool since November (as is typical) during these holiday months. This is marked by a substantial decline in both listing and sales activity -- not just from the fall, but new listing activity is also significantly below this time last year (about a 6% decline). The contraction typically continues before waking up in mid-January.

As illustrated in this report, by virtually every indicator - prices, inventory, overbidding, speed of sale, etc - the San Francisco market this past fall saw a stunning surge in demand, which we ascribe to the accelerating AI startup boom in the city. San Francisco now has one of the most heated markets in the country.

Our focus now shifts toward the New Year's market. In the past, the beginning of the year frequently ushers in a substantially higher level of activity that continues to build into spring. This occurred in early 2025 until affected by the "tariff shock" and subsequent economic reactions, initiating a significant slowdown in April.

In the broader financial landscape:

The Nasdaq is about even over the past month (+1%) and is +22% YTD.

The Dow is up about 2.5% over the last month and is +14% YTD.

Mortgage rates have continued a fairly steady decline throughout 2025: the average 30-yr fixed started just under 7% to begin the year and today it's hovering right around 6.2%.

If you have any questions about the market or specific property, I am always here and happy to help.

Tip: for the motivated buyer, now is a good time to ask about pocket listings and off-market inventory as many sellers are prepping for the spring market :).

Warmly,

Ron

San Francisco home sales pie chart comparing sales by property type and bedroom count, with median prices listed at right.

San Francisco median house price chart, 1990–2025, showing November 2025 prices near $1.8 million.

Table of San Francisco’s ten biggest reported house sales, with prices, neighborhoods, property details, and build years.

Chart of San Francisco two-bedroom condo prices, 2005–2025, with November 2025 median at $1,297,500.

Table of San Francisco’s biggest condo and co-op sales, led by a $24 million Pacific Heights co-op.

Chart of San Francisco new listings, January 2021–November 2025, showing seasonal spring rises and September peaks.

San Francisco active and coming-soon listing counts by month, with December 2025 inventory at 717.

San Francisco listing-days chart shows 155 listings on market 61–90 days and 95 listed for 181 or more days.

Line chart of San Francisco listings going into contract, August 2021–November 2025, showing seasonal peaks and December declines.

San Francisco monthly listing absorption-rate chart, with a sharp rise in fall 2025.

Chart of San Francisco monthly home sales, January 2021–November 2025, with seasonality labels and November 2025 market notes.

Chart of San Francisco $5 million-plus home sales, with monthly bars from 2020 through November 2025.

Chart of San Francisco sale prices versus original list prices, January 2020–November 2025, with an 8% overall overbid in November 2025.

Chart of San Francisco average days on market, with monthly data from 2021 through November 2025 and seasonal labels.

Link to 2025 home buyers and sellers report highlights, with a dotted U.S. map and Compass branding.

Mortgage rate chart, with weekly 30-year fixed rates peaking near 7.8% in 2023 before falling to about 6.2%.

Chart comparing Nasdaq and S&P 500 gains from January 2024 through December 2025, with market-event annotations.

Bitcoin price chart from March 2024 through December 5, 2025, annotated with election, tariff shock, and October peak.

Just Sold

Hayes Valley

555 Fulton St, Unit 427, 94102

1 BD 1 BA 728 SF $740,000

Seller Represented

Active Listing

Hayes Valley

55 Page St, Unit 514, 94102

0 BD 1 BA 476 SF $539,000

Ask about our coming soon and private exclusive inventory!

ronsellsthecity.com

Ron Salter

DRE #: 01989381

REALTOR®

M: 415.717.8752

[email protected]

Montgomery + LEE

National and regional statistics are generalities, essentially summaries generated by thousands of unique, individual listings and sales occurring across different market segments. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, and last period data should be considered preliminary estimates which may be revised in future updates. Different analytics programs sometimes define standard statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: What is most meaningful are not specific numeric calculations but the trends they illustrate. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors, and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate, and how these analyses apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.

San Francisco Market Update | December 2025

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