Clients, friends, and colleagues:
After a very slow market in the fall and winter of 2022, the San Francisco market is showing stronger signs of life as we officially enter the spring selling season. Open houses are busy again, mortgage applications are up, and I've even written offers for clients on properties that turned into frenzied bidding wars. These bidding wars are certainly no longer the norm -- buyers have leverage in most sectors of our market and it remains a great time to negotiate. With mortgage rates coming down & feeling relatively stable around 6%, buyers are gaining comfort with the state of the market.
Before you dive into the stats in the flipbook at the bottom (it's linked), here's some quick year-over-year figures to help you understand just how dramatic the drop-off was these last 3 months:
Using a 3-month rolling period (meaning each data point uses the past 3 months worth of sales), here are the median sale prices released in January 2023:
Single-family: $1,500,000
Down 16.7% Year-Over-Year. Back to levels in January 2020.
Also Down 16.7% Year-Over-Year. Back to levels in January 2017.
51.4% of Single-family homes are selling over asking, down
from 78.3% this time last year.
23.4% of Condominiums are selling over asking, down from 28.4% this time last year.
The total number of condo sales over this 3 month period was 372: the lowest total since the mortgage crisis in 2009!
If you have any questions about a specific property, market segment, or how I'm viewing 2023 & beyond, please feel free to reach out.
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Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multicounty metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.
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